Friday 7 September 2012

Premier League 2012/3: Predictions 2.0

You could argue that making a new set of predictions after the first three games of the season is a bit of a cop-out. But I disagree. The first three games are far from indicative of how the season will go. Last year, Wolves took seven points from their first three games. They won only three more matches all season. Importantly, the transfer window has now closed. Although there is always the chance players will be added in January, the current squads will have to last for the first half of the season at least. So, I’ve decided that at this point in the season we know enough to make some more educated predictions, without knowing so much that it’s a cop-out.

The positions in brackets indicate the positions I predicted before the start of the season in “Premier League 2012/3: Predicitions”.

1st               Manchester City (2nd)
First time out, I genuinely agonised over whether to go for United or City to win the title. In their first three games, City have convinced me they should have been top. They haven’t actually played very well, but they have found a way to win games, or draw in the case of Liverpool. They maybe didn’t strengthen as much as hoped on deadline day, but the squad is still strong and deep and you would back them to add in January.


2nd              Chelsea (3rd)
Atletico Madrid showed that this Chelsea team still has a way to go, beating them 4-1 in the UEFA Super Cup. But Chelsea have looked strong in the Premier League. Eden Hazard has been a sensation. Whether this will last is uncertain, but Chelsea still have quality elsewhere in midfield. Juan Mata has been stifled by Hazard so far, but one suspects he might come good if Hazard has a dip in form. Importantly, Torres has been scoring goals and looking more like his former self.

3rd               Manchester United (1st)
United fans couldn’t have hoped for much better from Robin van Persie in his first few games for the club. But the performance of the rest of team has left doubt as to whether they can win the title this year. The defence has looked shaky, with full backs who can go forward but can’t defend, and Rio Ferdinand looking in decline. Meanwhile the midfield was lightweight against Southampton, until Paul Scholes was brought on to provide quality. Reliance on older players like Scholes isn’t a formula for season-long success.

4th               Arsenal (4th)
A year can make a huge difference, and for Arsenal it certainly has. Without van Persie, goals have been harder to come by, but the defence has so far been impenetrable. It seems long ago when Manchester United put eight past them. Santi Cazorla has been particularly impressive so far, settling straight into the Premier League. I thought before the season Arsenal would be a clear fourth, not challenging for third or being challenged by fifth. The start of the season makes me think this even more.

5th               Swansea City (18th)
I’ve decided to be bold here. Coming into the season, little was known of what to expect of Swansea. But the arrival of the classy Michael Laudrup has reinvigorated the team, while the addition of unheralded players like Michu mean that this Swansea team looks stronger this season, despite the loss of manager Brendan Rodgers and two star players, Scott Sinclair and Joe Allen. Couple that with teams just outside the top four looking more likely to fall away, and Swansea could be a force.

6th              Everton (8th)
After an impressive win over Manchester United, Everton will have been disappointed to taste defeat against West Brom. They have a tendency to challenge the big sides but drop points to teams lower down in the table. A strong squad, with key players from last year held on to and a few key additions, means this could be one of Everton’s best years in the Premier League. Credit to David Moyes who has patiently assembled a very strong team who will be tough to beat.

7th              Newcastle United (7th)
The Magpies will have been delighted not to lose any key players in the transfer window, but they also failed to add significantly. They will still be strong, with Hatem ben Arfa in incredible form to start the year. But the lack of goals (and general struggles) from previously potent frontmen Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse will be a concern. The Europa League could act as a distraction, though the draw has ensured no long trips in the early stages.

8th               Tottenham Hotspur (5th)
Andre Villas-Boas has still yet to convince as a Premier League manager. Spurs were poor against Newcastle, before throwing away two 1-0 home leads to sit winless. The loss of Luka Modric was expected, but to let other players like Rafael van der Vaart leave is a big risk. The addition of Clint Dempsey and Moussa Dembele is more encouraging, but Villas-Boas is a manager who seems keen on establishing his own authority, with mixed results. In sum, Spurs look unlikely to progress form last season.

9th               Sunderland (11th)
Sunderland made the important addition of a goal-scorer in Steven Fletcher, who got off to the best possible start with two goals against Swansea. Coupled with Adam Johnson’s signing, and the new contract for livewire Stephane Sessegnon, and Sunderland are another team who will have been pleased with their summer dealings. Though still maybe a little short up-front of what would be ideal, a strong defence should see Sunderland improve on last year.

10th             Liverpool (6th)
I expected this year to be transitional for Liverpool, but even so this squad looks like European qualification would be a great achievement. I’ve written of late about the need to avoid changing things too radically. At the moment, Liverpool seem to be struggling to adapt to Brendan Rodgers’ style of play. Without doubt the quality of some of Liverpool’s squad will see them still challenge for European spots, but overall I can’t see them getting there.

11th             West Bromwich Albion (16th)
West Brom stand unbeaten after three games and, although that doesn’t mean a massive amount in the long-term, they have shown the ability to steer clear of relegation troubles this year. Steve Clarke, a popular coach, has proved any doubters wrong in masterminding early wins against both Liverpool and Everton. It is encouraging that they have beaten two of the stronger teams in the league, and have yet to play any of the teams expected to be at the bottom.

12th             Fulham (12th)
Fulham’s brilliant start has been somewhat overshadowed by the loss of two star players, Moussa Dembele and Clint Dempsey, to Tottenham. This will harm the team, but as I’ve said previously I’m impressed by the level of quality players in the squad, in all positions. They are unlikely to be able to recreate the performances in their first two games every week, but they will come round often enough to ensure that Fulham are well clear of relegation trouble.

13th             QPR (10th)
QPR undoubtedly have one of the deepest squads in the league, and one sprinkled with star quality. These should keep the team out of relegation trouble. True their start has left much to be desired, and at the moment they look less like a team and more like a set of individuals. But the ability to call on innumerable talented individuals and undoubted match-winners should give them enough. They are also certain to avoid injury crises, die to their large squad.

14th              West Ham United (14th)
Sam Allardyce and Andy Carroll are a match made in heaven. West Ham are a team that know exactly what they are, and they work to that formula. Carroll fits into this perfectly. Two wins in three is a strong start, though there will be difficult hurdles ahead. But looking at the side as it stands, I can’t see West Ham being in trouble with relegation come May. They will score goals and will be a tough team to beat.

15th              Wigan Athletic (15th)
Wigan are usually slow starters, but they have gotten out of the blocks well this time around. The key games for Wigan are those against teams likely to be around them come the end of the season, so a win against Southampton was much welcomed. The performance against Chelsea in game 1, excluding the first seven minutes in which they went 2-0 down, was promising. Wigan are a team that can play nice football and I still shy away from ever predicting them to be relegated.

16th             Reading (17th)
No doubt Reading will be heartened by their early season performances. They could have taken all three points at Chelsea, before the hosts went up a gear at the end of the game. Meanwhile they worked hard to salvage a point at Stoke. But the Royals were fairly quiet late in the transfer window, and remain with one of the weaker squads in the league. Other teams have shown more which is likely to concern, but Reading will still be in a fight at the bottom.

17th             Norwich City (9th)
The Canaries got off to a terrible start with defeat to Fulham, but a late point at Spurs will encourage them. They have struggled to strengthen over the summer, and key players from last year (particularly Grant Holt) have yet to deliver this season. I have previously praised Norwich’s creative midfield, and it still appears the most likely thing to keep Norwich out of the relegation places. Teams that score goals usually do ok in the Premier League, and Norwich have the potential to do so.

18th             Aston Villa (13th)
Villa are a team in crisis. A point against an underwhelming Newcastle team on Sunday merely papers over the cracks. But for a couple of star players, Villa have a weak squad and while their rivals went about adding quality on Transfer Deadline Day, Villa were rebuffed in their attempt to attract Clint Dempsey and were made to settle for signing lower league players. This is the formula for trouble. Villa’s long stay in the Premier League might be coming to an end.

19th              Southampton (19th)
Rickie Lambert has got off to a goal scoring start, which is crucial if Southampton are to stay up. But also crucial is the ability to hold on to leads. Southampton have relinquished 2-1 leads in the second half to both Manchester clubs, losing 3-2 both times. These are soul-destroying defeats. Though they wouldn’t have expected any points in those games, they would have hoped for better at Wigan, where they lost 2-0. No team has ever stayed up after losing its first three matches.

20th              Stoke City (20th)
No change here, as Stoke have yet to convince me that they are likely to stay up. In actual fact, two away points and another one at home to Arsenal, leaving Stoke undefeated (albeit with three consecutive draws) has been a strong start for the Potters. But the addition of Michael Owen smacks of desperation. I feel in general they haven’t strengthened enough. Charlie Adam’s signing tells me Stoke are having an identity crisis. Without their characteristic iron-clad game plan, Stoke may struggle.

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